{"id":1579,"date":"2026-09-04T09:16:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T07:16:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.livalor.com\/?p=1579"},"modified":"2026-09-04T11:50:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T09:50:28","slug":"valuation-cycles-and-risk-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.livalor.com\/de\/valuation-cycles-and-risk-management\/","title":{"rendered":"When Expectations Outpace Reality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Valuation Cycles and Risk Management \u2013 Q3<\/span> 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

New tech\u00adno\u00adlo\u00adgies reshape the future. Yet the expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons placed on them often deve\u00adlop faster than their econo\u00admic reality. History shows that major inno\u00adva\u00adtions first spark enthu\u00adsi\u00adasm and high valua\u00adtions, long before their true econo\u00admic value has fully unfolded. Over time, expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons and reality realign, the eupho\u00adria fades and valua\u00adtions norma\u00adlise \u2013 while the inno\u00adva\u00adtion itself endures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The inter\u00adnet chan\u00adged the world profoundly. Even so, many of its even\u00adtual winners lost more than 80 per cent of their market value during the dotcom correc\u00adtion before their busi\u00adnesses grew into those valua\u00adtions years later \u2013 while nume\u00adrous others disap\u00adpeared from the market altog\u00ade\u00adther. Innovation and valua\u00adtion rarely move at the same pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the present, this yields an important obser\u00adva\u00adtion. Market correc\u00adtions do not arise solely in phases of econo\u00admic weak\u00adness or rece\u00ads\u00adsion. They can equally occur when expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons rise faster than econo\u00admic reality. In such phases it is not the inno\u00adva\u00adtion that is called into question, but its valuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High valua\u00adtions do not inevi\u00adta\u00adbly lead to falling markets. They do, howe\u00adver, alter the balance between oppor\u00adtu\u00adnity and risk: the remai\u00adning upside narrows, while the down\u00adside in the event of disap\u00adpoint\u00adment widens. This does not mean a correc\u00adtion is immi\u00adnent. It means, rather, that the start\u00ading posi\u00adtion has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precisely this tension between inno\u00adva\u00adtion, expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons and valua\u00adtions can be obser\u00adved in every major tech\u00adno\u00adlo\u00adgi\u00adcal phase. The current AI<\/span> invest\u00adment cycle is no exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Current Example<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The long-term poten\u00adtial of arti\u00adfi\u00adcial intel\u00adli\u00adgence is beyond question. At the same time, the question arises whether the pace of invest\u00adment and the expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons atta\u00adched to it have, in certain areas, alre\u00adady been partly anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is evident in a mecha\u00adnism recently discus\u00adsed as the AI<\/span> finan\u00adcing loop. Put simply, some large chip and cloud provi\u00adders invest in AI<\/span> compa\u00adnies. Part of this capi\u00adtal then flows back, as those same compa\u00adnies purchase compu\u00adting power and chips from precis\u00adely these provi\u00adders. This gives rise to capi\u00adtal flows that partly circu\u00adlate within the same value chain. A compa\u00adra\u00adble pattern emer\u00adged around the turn of the mill\u00aden\u00adnium in the tele\u00adcom\u00admu\u00adni\u00adca\u00adti\u00adons sector, when equip\u00adment makers helped finance the growth of their own custo\u00admers \u2013 until demand fell short of expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons and these inter\u00adde\u00adpen\u00adden\u00adcies unwound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the repor\u00adted growth thus rests on capi\u00adtal flows within the same ecosy\u00adstem. As long as these invest\u00adments conti\u00adnue, the mecha\u00adnism persists. Should it slow, growth expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons may adjust accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimates from various market analy\u00adses suggest that the mutual finan\u00adcing and invest\u00adment inter\u00adde\u00adpen\u00adden\u00adcies accu\u00admu\u00adla\u00adted to date amount to well over US<\/span>$800 billion. Measured against the US<\/span> equity market as a whole, this figure appears modest at first. What matters, howe\u00adver, is less the abso\u00adlute amount than the concen\u00adtra\u00adtion of this capi\u00adtal in a small number of compa\u00adnies that today shape a signi\u00adfi\u00adcant part of index perfor\u00admance. In the event of disap\u00adpoint\u00adment, what would prima\u00adrily be repri\u00adced there is not a single sum, but the growth narra\u00adtive that under\u00adpins these valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AI<\/span> invest\u00adment cycle is ther\u00ade\u00adfore less a fore\u00adcast than a current exam\u00adple of how expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons, capi\u00adtal flows and valua\u00adtions can inter\u00adact. Whether a future repri\u00adcing actually origi\u00adna\u00adtes there or is trig\u00adge\u00adred by other deve\u00adlo\u00adp\u00adments remains open. The under\u00adly\u00ading mecha\u00adnism, by contrast, is timeless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Known Risks Are Not Automatically Priced In<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The real chall\u00adenge ther\u00ade\u00adfore lies less in the risk itself than in how it is inter\u00adpre\u00adted. The rela\u00adti\u00adon\u00adships descri\u00adbed have long been known and are widely discus\u00adsed. To conclude from this that they are alre\u00adady fully reflec\u00adted in valua\u00adtions would be prema\u00adture. Being known and being priced in are two diffe\u00adrent things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capital markets have repea\u00adtedly shown that risks do not lose signi\u00adfi\u00adcance simply because they are talked about. What matters, rather, is how expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons, valua\u00adtions and the beha\u00adviour of market parti\u00adci\u00adpants inter\u00adact. As long as these do not change, the start\u00ading posi\u00adtion too remains largely unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In phases of great confi\u00addence in parti\u00adcu\u00adlar, a high concen\u00adtra\u00adtion on a few themes or compa\u00adnies often emer\u00adges. In itself this is neither unusual nor proble\u00adma\u00adtic. Yet the more one-sided expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons become, the more sensi\u00adtively valua\u00adtions react to disap\u00adpoint\u00adment \u2013 not because the long-term pros\u00adpects funda\u00admen\u00adtally change, but because a great deal of good news had alre\u00adady been taken for granted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here lies the real heart of the matter. A surpri\u00adsing event finds market parti\u00adci\u00adpants differ\u00adently posi\u00adtio\u00adned: some are expo\u00adsed, others hedged, still others stand on the other side and buy. The pres\u00adsure is disper\u00adsed. With a widely known risk, the reverse holds. Because ever\u00adyone shares the same assess\u00adment yet remains inve\u00adsted, most are posi\u00adtio\u00adned in the same direc\u00adtion \u2013 on the same side, in the same few compa\u00adnies. Should that assess\u00adment change, it is not indi\u00advi\u00addual parti\u00adci\u00adpants who wish to sell, but nearly all at once. And when ever\u00adyone tries to leave through the same door at the same time, there is no one on the other side to buy. The market then falls not in an orderly fashion, but abruptly. This is precis\u00adely why, under one-sided posi\u00adtio\u00adning, even small shifts in expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons can trig\u00adger dispro\u00adpor\u00adtio\u00adna\u00adtely large movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current AI<\/span> invest\u00adment cycle illu\u00adstra\u00adtes this inter\u00adplay to a parti\u00adcu\u00adlar degree. It combi\u00adnes high expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons, excep\u00adtio\u00adnal invest\u00adment and a strong concen\u00adtra\u00adtion of capi\u00adtal flows in a few compa\u00adnies \u2013 exactly the condi\u00adti\u00adons under which one-sided posi\u00adtio\u00adning can arise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concluding Thoughts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

New tech\u00adno\u00adlo\u00adgies will conti\u00adnue to drive inno\u00adva\u00adtion, produc\u00adti\u00advity and econo\u00admic progress. Of that there is little doubt. Equally, there is much to suggest that capi\u00adtal markets will, in future too, repea\u00adtedly expe\u00adri\u00adence phases in which expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons run ahead of econo\u00admic reality and valua\u00adtions adjust accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For inve\u00adstors, the chall\u00adenge ther\u00ade\u00adfore lies less in predic\u00adting the next turning point. What matters more is to reas\u00adsess expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons, valua\u00adtions and risks on an ongo\u00ading basis and to draw decis\u00adi\u00adons from this with the neces\u00adsary discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A norma\u00adli\u00adsa\u00adtion of valua\u00adtions would, from this perspec\u00adtive, be no extra\u00ador\u00addi\u00adnary deve\u00adlo\u00adp\u00adment, but part of a recur\u00adring market mecha\u00adnism. Innovation and valua\u00adtion rarely move at the same pace \u2013 and ther\u00adein lies the chall\u00adenge of long-term risk management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer. This publi\u00adca\u00adtion is issued by Livalor Vermoegensverwaltung AG<\/span>, Zurich and Vaduz, for gene\u00adral infor\u00adma\u00adtion only. It consti\u00adtu\u00adtes neither a soli\u00adci\u00adta\u00adtion, an offer, nor a recom\u00admen\u00adda\u00adtion, express or implied, in respect of any finan\u00adcial instru\u00adment, issuer, sector, market or asset allo\u00adca\u00adtion, nor an invi\u00adta\u00adtion to engage in any tran\u00adsac\u00adtion. Market mecha\u00adnisms descri\u00adbed by way of exam\u00adple are illu\u00adstra\u00adtive only and are not inten\u00added to iden\u00adtify or assess any parti\u00adcu\u00adlar company or instru\u00adment. This publi\u00adca\u00adtion is not invest\u00adment, legal or tax advice and is not tail\u00ado\u00adred to any reci\u00adpi\u00adent; before making invest\u00adment decis\u00adi\u00adons we recom\u00admend consul\u00adting a quali\u00adfied profes\u00adsio\u00adnal. Reading it crea\u00adtes no client or advi\u00adsory rela\u00adti\u00adon\u00adship. The infor\u00adma\u00adtion is based on sources we consider relia\u00adble, although we do not guaran\u00adtee its comple\u00adten\u00adess or accu\u00adracy. It reflects the posi\u00adtion at the time of prepa\u00adra\u00adtion, may change at any time and will not be updated. Past market phases are not a relia\u00adble indi\u00adca\u00adtor of future results; forward-looking assess\u00adments rest on assump\u00adti\u00adons and are subject to uncer\u00adtainty, so that actual deve\u00adlo\u00adp\u00adments may differ mate\u00adri\u00adally. Livalor Vermoegensverwaltung AG<\/span> and the port\u00adfo\u00adlios it mana\u00adges may hold posi\u00adti\u00adons in instru\u00adments of the kind refer\u00adred to herein. This publi\u00adca\u00adtion is not direc\u00adted at any parti\u00adcu\u00adlar juris\u00addic\u00adtion and consti\u00adtu\u00adtes, in any juris\u00addic\u00adtion, neither an offer or soli\u00adci\u00adta\u00adtion nor the provi\u00adsion of invest\u00adment advice or port\u00adfo\u00adlio manage\u00adment services. Livalor Vermoegensverwaltung AG<\/span> offers its services only where it is autho\u00adri\u00adsed to do so. Any person acce\u00ads\u00adsing this publi\u00adca\u00adtion, or cont\u00adac\u00adting us in response to it, does so on their own initia\u00adtive and is respon\u00adsi\u00adble for obser\u00adving the laws appli\u00adca\u00adble to them; no such cont\u00adact obli\u00adges us to provide any service. To the extent permit\u00adted by law, we accept no liabi\u00adlity for any loss arising from reli\u00adance on this publi\u00adca\u00adtion. No part may be repro\u00addu\u00adced without our prior writ\u00adten consent.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Valuation Cycles and Risk Management \u2013 Q3<\/span> 2026 New tech\u00adno\u00adlo\u00adgies reshape the future. Yet the expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons placed on them often deve\u00adlop faster than their econo\u00admic reality. History shows that major inno\u00adva\u00adtions first spark enthu\u00adsi\u00adasm and high valua\u00adtions, long before their true econo\u00admic value has fully unfolded. Over time, expec\u00adta\u00adti\u00adons and reality realign, the eupho\u00adria fades and [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":134,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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